ELAZIG GUNISIGI NEWSPAPER – November 2011
VAN EARTHQUAKE PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT REPORT
I would like to begin with the final words of my previous writings on earthquakes and building safety: "Communities with high levels of civilization, those who have set their sights on the future with great projects and goals, are the ones whose homes are the safest places during an earthquake."
If we briefly recall the recent devastating earthquakes in our country, we remember the 1992 Erzincan Earthquake, the 1998 Adana-Ceyhan Earthquake, the 1999 Marmara Earthquakes, the 2003 Bingöl Earthquake, the 2010 Başyurt-Karakoçan-Elazığ Earthquake, and the most recent October 23, 2011 Van-Erciş Earthquake, all of which have left unforgettable pain. Earthquakes with destructive power seem to occur in our country in less than a 10-year cycle. The 5.6 magnitude aftershock following the 7.2 magnitude earthquake unfortunately added pain to the existing suffering and hardships.
The earthquake performance of the buildings in our country, particularly the current stock of buildings, is already quite clear. However, it continues to trouble us to see this confirmed with each earthquake. To almost confirm what we already know, our technical team set off to Van right after the Eid al-Adha.
We traveled with Prof. Dr. Zülfü Çınar ULUCAN, Prof. Dr. Yusuf CALAYIR, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Mehmet KARATAŞ, Expert A. Tevfik BİLDİK, Research Asst. Dr. Erkut SAYIN, Research Asst. Burak YÖN, and Research Asst. Hümeyra ŞAHİN from the Civil Engineering Department of Fırat University’s Faculty of Engineering. In this article, I will attempt to share the preliminary impressions of the report our technical team will prepare.
We were in Van on November 9, 2011, the day after the second destruction, while rescue operations were still ongoing. Our first stop was at the collapsed buildings where rescue teams were working tirelessly to reach people fighting for their lives. What we witnessed in those moments was intense emotional turmoil. On one side, rescue operations continued, and on the other, the relatives of those trapped under the rubble were praying, waiting for their loved ones to be pulled out alive.
In all the buildings we examined, we found violations of the relevant regulations and standards in the construction process. We specifically searched for buildings that had followed construction rules but were damaged; however, unfortunately, we did not find any. Our aim was to identify any gaps in the rules, but once again, the issue was not with the rules but with the projects and construction practices. The result was the same: human beings had done everything they could to ensure the collapse of reinforced concrete buildings, and to some extent, they had succeeded. I say "to some extent" because, after inspecting the buildings in Erciş, we realized that the reason thousands of buildings did not collapse was that reinforced concrete performed more robustly than calculations suggested.
Many of the mosques in Van and Erciş were damaged. Most of the minarets had collapsed, causing significant damage to the mosques. It would not be wrong to say that both stone and reinforced concrete minarets were built without considering the effects of earthquakes. Mosques, which are shelters in the spiritual sense, also serve as crucial spaces for collective shelter and heating needs during disasters like earthquakes—of course, provided they can withstand the earthquake with minimal or no structural damage.
If you look at the photos, you will see both completely collapsed buildings and those that are severely damaged but still partially standing. Even buildings constructed according to the 1975 or even 1968 earthquake regulations would not completely collapse. The important thing is that even if a building sustains heavy damage, it should not result in loss of life. If a building, like the Bayram Hotel, collapses within seconds, it requires serious reflection. It is said that the hotel was built in 1965—didn’t this building already reach the end of its useful life, even without the earthquake? This suggests that we are waiting for earthquake-damaged, structurally deficient buildings to kill us in future earthquakes, and only then will we replace them.
Don’t be misled by the 1965 construction date. There are dozens of buildings constructed after 2000 that are severely damaged and have completely collapsed. This is because buildings do not resist earthquakes according to the rules in the earthquake regulations; rather, they try to withstand earthquakes based on their existing structural capacity.
When you look at the buildings that were not collapsed but largely violated the regulations, the question arises: How do these buildings manage to stay standing? The answer is quite simple: These buildings stood, but the moment they were hit by a moderate aftershock, they turned into rubble within seconds, just like the Bayram and Aslan Hotels.
In Erciş, the snow depth reached about 10 cm in one day. The difficulties increased with the cold. The earthquake was not just about destruction and death—it was also about longing, pain, living in tents, battling the cold, struggling for bread, and families fighting to survive. When you see people who have strong homes living in tents in their gardens, you understand why when you jump out of your bed during an aftershock at night.
When we examined this earthquake in Van and Erciş, I was surprised by the earthquake’s effect for the first time. At that point, nearly 1,000 lives had been lost, and dozens of buildings had collapsed. Looking at the buildings, we thought that if we had assessed this building stock and predicted a 7.2 magnitude earthquake, we would have expected at least half, if not thousands, of the buildings to collapse. Considering the current building stock, the loss of life and destruction were much lower than expected. The earthquake occurred in less than half the time of the 17 August Earthquake, which helped us avoid a much larger disaster.
I can predict the question you may be wondering: What would have happened if this earthquake had occurred in Elazığ? Honestly, wherever it had happened in Turkey, the situation would have been worse than Erciş. This is why it is imperative to take preventive measures before a disaster strikes.
It is not possible to express the Van Earthquake in just a few pages. I will continue to examine it from technical, emotional, and economic aspects in my forthcoming writings. However, briefly, here are the things we believe need to be done:
- The urban transformation plan and law should be prepared in 15 days, and instead of making hundreds of revisions in the following days, the most effective work should be done with common sense and collective intelligence as soon as possible.
- The Turkish Concrete Institute should be established, and all concrete plants and cement factories across the country should be inspected. As long as ready-mix concrete is not inspected, transmixers and large concrete trucks will continue to operate in many regions.
- The building inspection system should be reevaluated. A critical issue is how much a worker can inspect the employer. The building inspection system must be under state control. Public employees, such as security personnel, working within the building inspection system should not work in their own hometowns, and their term of service should be limited.
- Urban transformation projects should not begin until the building inspection system is capable of producing buildings with high earthquake resilience and until the gaps in the system are closed. Otherwise, we may face even bigger problems than we do today.
- Just as a driver with a B-class license cannot drive trucks or buses, not every construction engineer should be allowed to sign off on every project. Education should continue after graduation.
- Every city has its own unique characteristics. Therefore, earthquake strategies and urban transformation plans should be tailored to each province. Local universities, municipalities, and other institutions should collaborate to produce more practical and applicable projects.
- Urban planning and zoning should be taken away from municipalities that are under heavy political pressure and profit motives and handed over to institutions or commissions that can manage these tasks more effectively.
- The carpenters and ironworkers, who are often neglected in construction, should be part of continuous training. Additionally, with a new law, they should be held responsible for construction deficiencies. This will create an internal self-control system in production.
It is not the earthquake or the buildings that kill, but human beings. If we do not want our homes to become our graves, we must embrace urban transformation with sincerity, not for profit but for service. The same efforts should also be applied to rural areas. If rural planning is done well, migration from cities to villages can be initiated. This would help prevent many social and economic problems in our country.
I pray for the souls of those who lost their lives in the earthquake, for the speedy recovery of the injured, and offer my condolences to the entire nation. If we do not want to experience such pain again, let us build buildings with high earthquake resilience...