ELAZIG GUNISIGI NEWSPAPER – February 2011
CONCERNS REACHING THEIR PEAK
Some dangers are constantly present, but unfortunately, we don’t want to see them until it’s too late. We tend to accept sudden accidents or disasters, but when it comes to known and visible threats, it becomes hard to label the waiting period without precautions.
Professor Dr. Ahmet Mete IŞIKARA, former director of the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute of Boğaziçi University and current senior advisor to the Turkish Red Crescent, has recently brought forward important statements. His remarks, particularly concerning a new earthquake risk map, were included in the weekend editions of newspapers. This map highlighted several risky areas, including Elazığ and its surrounding region. The situation in Hatay, in particular, was emphasized as being quite serious. The fact that we share the same earthquake zone as Hatay underscores the shared risk between the two regions.
Seismologists have expressed concerns about the long period of seismic quiet in Hatay, a region that has historically experienced devastating earthquakes, both in terms of material and human loss. The absence of major earthquakes in recent years has increased the likelihood of a large-scale earthquake occurring, with experts warning that the risk of a 7.0 magnitude or higher earthquake continues to rise.
Hatay has experienced almost ten significant earthquakes in its history, with the first known one dating back to 115 AD. It’s estimated that these earthquakes caused around 1,000,000 deaths. Based on the average occurrence of destructive earthquakes every 110 years in Hatay, the fact that such an event hasn’t occurred in 137 years is alarming. Experts are particularly concerned about the accumulation of seismic energy in this critical region.
Here’s a historical summary of the destructive earthquakes in Hatay:
- 69 BC: 170,000 deaths in Antakya and some Arab cities; Cyprus and Egypt were also affected.
- 37 BC: Numerous recorded deaths.
- 115 AD: 260,000 deaths.
- 148 and 334 AD: Approximately 40,000 deaths.
- September 13, 458 AD: 80,000 deaths.
- May 29, 526 AD: Approximately 300,000 deaths.
- May 29, 428 AD: 5,000 deaths in Antakya, Samandağ, and Latakia.
- October 31, 588 AD: 60,000 deaths.
- 847 AD: 20,000 deaths.
- March 8, 1053 AD: 10,000 deaths.
- June 20, 1170 AD: 80,000 deaths.
- August 13, 1822: A major earthquake in Gaziantep, Antakya, Islahiye, and Aleppo; between 30,000 and 60,000 deaths; possible tsunami.
- April 3, 1872: 1,000 deaths, with about 70% of homes destroyed.
December 25, 1996: A 5.5 magnitude earthquake in Samandağ, Hatay; felt in surrounding provinces, followed by numerous aftershocks.
As we can see, the region has a long history of destructive earthquakes. This historical pattern gives seismologists valid reasons for their concerns.
While risky areas are directly affected, regions nearby are also at risk. A good example of this is the impact of the Gebze-Kocaeli earthquake on the farthest corner of Istanbul, in Avcılar.
Ideally, we want to take precautions before such visible dangers turn into events that we can never forget. It is our hope that earthquake risks and urban transformation projects will remain on the agenda of parliamentary candidates, elected officials, and decision-makers, in order to take action before it's too late.